Xu Xiaonian: real estate can not support this large volume China economic risk is more and more high Xu Xiaonian: to productivity, deleveraging, inventory policy is a global times weekly reporter Yang Kaiqi from Guangzhou downtown pressure on the economy, industrial transformation and upgrade increasingly urgent. The government has introduced a number of policies to capacity, inventory, deleveraging, and guide the development of the real economy to support. But in recent years, the king of the country, the funds continue to flow into the real estate sector, and the goal of the revitalization of the real economy from. In such a contradictory situation, how to treat the government "three go" policy, industrial policy, fiscal policy? In late September, the famous economist, CEIBS professor Xu Xiaonian will attend the era of media "organized by the Silk Road (Dunhuang) International Cultural Expo – Nobel scholars Silk Road forum". The forum held before, Xu Xiaonian times weekly reporter interview, he heavy-hearted in continuous fever, turning to real estate: "internal risk beyond a critical point, there may be a debt crisis, substantial adjustment and capital market." Die Zeit: in recent years, the downward pressure on the economy, economic indicators in the first quarter of this year has improved, downward pressure seems to have eased, you on the current economic situation, how to judge? Xu Xiaonian: a few months ago this year, the economy temporarily improved, this is the implementation of the traditional Keynes policy results, increase in money, credit, government investment projects launched, the economy seems to stabilize, but this is just a symptom not sustainable. May, authorities issued an authoritative speech, the momentum of expansionary policy has been suppressed, but the data from June and July to August, the spirit of the speech has not been seriously implemented. Times weekly: in recent years, the king around the country frequency. People forecast prices will continue to fluctuate, have entered the market. Real estate feast will bring the Chinese society where to go? Xu Xiaonian: the release of money and credit, mostly into the real estate market, the real economy is still depressed. From the data point of view, in July about 400000000000 yuan of new loans, almost all flows to the real estate market in August new loans of $900 billion, of which 670 billion of housing loans. Credit so concentrated in real estate, which is unprecedented, need to be vigilant. A real estate industry is unlikely to support China’s economy so large body mass, and rising prices, making the market more and more high risk. If you can not make a significant progress in the "three go" (to the production capacity, deleveraging, inventory), the Chinese economy is more and more internal risk accumulation, the long-term development of the economy is very unfavorable. Once the risk exceeds the critical point, the asset price adjustment, it is likely to lead to corporate and local government debt crisis. Currently on the market is a popular view that China’s household sector debt ratio is not high, can be leveraged in the enterprise and government, while increasing the liabilities of residents. If you compare the world’s major economies, Chinese resident sector liabilities are not high, but the comparison is not much significance, because Chinese social security is relatively backward, the residents had to General Department相关的主题文章: